Forex Steam Review V10 Breakdown - Business Matters

First week of live trading and actually having a plan

Been learning forex trading now for about 2 years just reading and practising on demo, in the past 6 months however I've taken a more data driven approach and now I've just completed my first week of live trading (a small amount, nothing too big, just 200). the plan I guess is to reflect on the trades I've taken every week and use this medium as a way of peer reviewing the things I do.
Took 3 trades this week,
21/10/2020 - EURAUD and EURNZD sell
After identifying these pairs as sells, I viewed the potential sell move that could take place as a broader sell off of the euro rather than individual rising of the AUD or the NZD. For that reason, I decided to split my normal risk per trade amount (2.5%) in half and treat this as one euro sell trade. I closed my trades when they hit the previous days low, however as you can see, price continued moving down for a deeper sell off which is a lilbit depressing to see, knowing I could have made more if I had held, but meh, still bagged 3 times my risk so can't be too sad for the first trades of the first week.
Outcome (In RR):
EURAUD - 2.9
EURNZD -3.35

23/10/2020 - AUDNZD Buy
I was late on my analysis on this trade because I woke up late, however I was still able to fill the limit order after price returned back to my buy zone. The trade looked good going in, however, the moves that I trade on tend to be higher momentum moves, and a few hours into the trade I could tell that there just wasnt any steam, so I moved the stop closer to the entry (but not breakeven, to give it room to breath), anyway, the market moved against me and took me out for 0.5R, saved 50% from the initial risk size so not bad.
Outcome (In RR)
-0.5
From demo trading this strategy, I know that sometimes the trades can run for a long time. I was curious to know how those of you that have long term swing moves manage the risk and lock in profits but also give the trades room to breath, I've been messing around with using donchians as a trailing stop method however Im eager to know of other methods.
p.s lemme know if Im breaking any rules by posting this here, new to reddit and all, also, if there is any interest in it, I can post my reasoning for entering these trades if requested.
p.p.s the screenshots of the trades were moderated out, but I've reposted them on my profile
submitted by Hatchscb to Forex [link] [comments]

KFC6855/环球潮鞋: The Secrets of Replica Sneaker Selling

KFC6855/环球潮鞋: The Secrets of Replica Sneaker Selling
Following a post from u/donjonne about a HUGE Weibo story on how to actually start your own 1:1 repsneaker empire, I figured as a native Mandarin speaker I gave it a shot and translated the entire article, since I myself am pretty damn intrigued what the guy's speaking.Do note this article is written in March 2017, lots of stuff may have been outdated, and I translated word-for-word with some pruned paragraphs that seems like the fella repeating himself. I absolutely hate the weird flowery prose Mandarin always carry when I work on translations, so apologies if the in-jokes or general writing gets a bit dry.
This is my personal tl;dr without the author's boastful claims, so if you're short on time, here's the quick rundown.

How do replica sneakers get sold?

Taobao: Long history with the reputation for being the single biggest online BST hub, with Tmall and Xianyu Second-hands integrated. Lots of fake reviews and seller reputation ratings. The rep game there got outta hand, CEO of Alibaba stepped in and cleaned house, thus everyone moved to...
WeChat: Lots more convoluted, no proper tracking and confirmation like a real shopping app and build quality can vary greatly between sneaker models from the same seller. But through word-of-mouth, standout resellers get recommended more organically, of course you need connections to start with.
Agents: Your best friend if you're overseas, usually ran by freelancers merely collecting orders, reporting back to resellers and have them directly ship your kicks to your doorstep. Agents can be a single person, or a huge operation i.e. Wegobuy and Ytaopal.

How's the quality tho?

Depends. Some will try to bait-and-switch, some will bond genuine friendships for simply being a return customer. Factories often cut corners to save some dough and end up with a worse rep, so like the purpose of this sub, dig into forums and guide yourself to trustworthy sellers. Author also goes on a tangent and revealed the numbers and figures of selling reps, along with the sheer gold rush he's in now. Read below for more info.

Anything of note?

We're getting ripped off. Real hard, if you're a Mainlander chances are you're being sold 1/3 of the prices we see here. Part of the reason is that the multi-level reselling jacks up the price a lot, so unless you're buying in bulk for the purpose of selling them, good luck finding GET-passable OW AJ1's for less than $70. If you get caught selling, it's fines upwards of ¥50,000 and your license revoked, but nothing too serious beyond that. Author promised more novel shoes get made in the future, like Uggs and non-hypebeast dress shoes or sumthin.

With that outta the way, here's the translation for the whole article, hope you'll learn something for it and if there's any mistakes, feel free to point it out in DMs or just in the comments.
EDIT 17/05/2020: punctuation mistakes and missing formatting, also thanks for the kind words repfam
_______________

GOD'S HAND: The Secrets of Replica Sneaker Selling


Having been in the rep game for around 4 to 5 years, it all started out of sheer curiosity. I spent ¥1099 for Air Force 1's some celebrity wore, only to had my buddy show up on me with a fake pair of the same sneaker only costs ¥300.
Not everyone is some rich parents' spoiled brat where a pair of shoes costing a couple grand is considered pocket change, yet everyone has that sense of envy, the need to follow the hype to really stand out from the crowd, so do I honestly. But then again you'd only wear that pair of grails for only a good couple months and it'll be out of the wave, why not I find myself a more wallet-friendly way to do so?
Ever since dipping my toe into the replica community, I'm making connections, meeting new friends and getting scammed in every step I make, keeping contacts of my favorite sellers (looking back yeah they're not the best and cheapest isn't it huh). I'm deep in the rabbit hole now, buying so many pairs I'm starting to be able to tell batches at a glance, and where to hunt down that very best batch at the cheapest price. At this point it's natural that I'm thinking of selling these reps and becoming a middleman with the best of the batches under one roof (which is what's following below).
Anyone who has dealt with middlemen know that actually tracking down the direct factory outlets are nigh impossible, and the multiple stages of middlemen-ception where bigger but more discreet resellers selling to more minor, smaller middlemen can only make one dream of the sheer profit you can make for being on the very top of the pyramid, that idea has only been a mere blip in my mind. There was once in a bar my fam hollered at me with "Yo you remember that John Doe went to Putian for two years? Dude gave up college and has been filthy stinkin' rich by now!" I was like bah it'll never work out for me, but with the summer break I'd worth giving it a shot and have John Doe on the line. And boy howdy, ain't he wildin' right now with his business.
Some say every Nike you see there's 1/3 chance it's straight outta Putian, some say Nike's LC works by handling a pair of dumb shoes to an uninformed factory worker and have him say "fuck kinda shoes are these, looks cool I guess so it's legit?" The only way is to really tear down the whole sneaker and see the markings in UV, and once we're on the point where we can fake inside tags and its barcodes, ask yourself can call out fakes on feet?
A promotion for \"discount\" NB's on Weibo
Ever seen promos like these?
It's what I saw on Weibo today, and you've seen one like it yourself did you? They all look good on the images and you'd be right that they're photos of the real deal, just that of course the shoes you actually get were reps, and for each pair profits are never above ¥100; I sell ya an NB for ¥165, I'd only make ¥50.

REPLICA SNEAKERS: HOW DO THEY GET SOLD?

TAOBAO
Taobao has always been the single biggest hub for BST. Run by the faceless middlemen, sold by the page visits, and reviewed by the bots. And stores with inflated trust scores were used as a front, once costing hundreds of yuan to buy now go for the tens of thousands. As Taobao is taking action to curb counterfeits to make way for legitimate resellers, these fronts are getting more expensive by the day, since then people took it to WeChat later on.
Ask anyone who ran a Taobao store, and they'd tell you "you'll never make a cent unless you're selling fakes". A pair of (fake) shoes take some ¥100 to make, and can be sold as a legit like the thousands of yuan you see on their listings, you'd get away with dozens of fakes sold this way, where you can properly guage and adjust said price to match your profit margins. Once the rep game got popular and the snowball kept rolling, the problem got too big for Ma Yun to not ignore it and he went full banhammer on every rep seller. With every media outlet roasting Taobao's ass, everyone wises up to the knowledge that almost every sneaker you see could be fakes. The stigma lived on, and no one would touch any store where its place of origin writes "Putian".
When life gives you lemons, you make a whole damn lemonade stand and just circumvent the whole damn thing by appearing that you're not from Putian. Problem solved. As you check your shipping details, it always seems to travel from Shangai, Shenzen, Quanzhou or even goddamn Xiamen of all places, even overseas.

Proxy services are very popular due to China's stringent laws
When sneakers are labeled as being shipped from Hong Kong, of course the sellers gonna say "it's from Hong Kong" but in fact it's shipping from Shenzhen, and the seller's excuse is that the sneakers are going through HK's borders from Shenzen then to the buyer's location. Even if you bought fakes in Tmall however, it won't be as bad as the ones sold as legit retails in Taobao. There's just too many of these rip-offs anyway! Had a reseller came to me to buy 10 pairs of sneakers, I make ¥10 each pair, but he sold it as retails and went on to make ¥500 each. Of course I'd panicked a jacked a prices a bit so I could have my own slice of extra profit to ¥20 each pair, said the factories jacked the prices themselves as an excuse.
Hoe's mad I guess

WECHAT
While profit margins are no higher than Taobao, they still range around a dozen yuan on bulk. For all the actual friends I have in WeChat, I'd never believe them not having owned a replica sneaker in their whole life, blah blah blah "factory direct", "wholesale prices" my ass, who really can head to the factories and buy direct these days? Rep resellers buying bulk from those factories are truly the "direct from factory" purchases. Resellers then selling the reps to middlemen and agents, that's another step. Said middlemen then resell these reps to quote-on-quote "middlemen". (NB: may have been the very resellers we see on the sub) And it goes on and on and then, to you, the customer.The so-called A-grade reps you see on WC, let's say we buy it from the factory at ¥200 (for example, the real deal won't be this cheap) and sell to the end-user for ¥400~¥500, it does in fact look decent. Heck, retails may get "called out" in forums and reps may sneak under the radar. Chat and forum opinions aren't good indicatiors for a rep's actual quality. Thus you may wonder why buy retails at this point? No one would really hit the New Balance outlets at their local Wanda mall and ask the teeny-bop promoter lady if their kicks are legit anyway, so wouldn't this been the dream job you've wanted, right?
SMALL-TIME AGENTS
These sort of agents are mostly handling orders from overseas to cater the westerners, mainly Russian, SE-Asian, North/South American countries etc., and will never be some solo project as they always come in groups of a few dozen staff members. These agent groups can also hire decently well-spoken college students to help converse customers in English and pay them good pocket change, which is eerily similar to how Forex scams work before, but this time they're doing legit businesses for a change. Sort of.
FREELANCE AGENTS
The most common agent you may come across can be your close friends, they get instant payouts for attracting their local classmates to collect orders for reps, and this wannabe hustler reports them back to the resellers to ship to school dorms directly.

REPLICA BUILD AND QUALITY

Replicas reach far, far and wide. You could see your neighborhood cleaner aunt wearing 990v4s, motorbike taxi riders wearing Duck Camo AM90's, your kind old uncle next door exercising in Flyknit Racers and so on. NB, Nike, Converse, Ascis, Kappa; any brand you wanted they got it. ¥100 to ¥500 is what the factories charge, but after it hits resellers with a ¥200 hike, the illusion what seems to be a shoe that'll last breaks down as it wears out after a few wears. Bad stitching? Poorly-tumbled faux-leather? Off-moulded shape? I'd believe you but you sure you can tell if the EVA is fake by just looking on it? Is the gluing pattern underneath it visible even? A good deal of local boutiques sell ¥120 replicas at official retail prices like ¥599, a good ¥400 profit.
Putian factories are split into "heavy" and "light" industries. The heavy industries builds the sneaker as a whole from scratch, while the light industries were like CKD vehicles, where parts are purchased and assembled together instead. and quality of each part of the sneaker depends among factories. Lots of them try to cut corners to save every extra cent, which explains the decreasing quality of recent sneakers you see now. Larger factories has always been delivering consistently decent sneakers, as customers who contacted them are much picker and won't slash prices along with quality out of the blue. The stitching (and Nike Air units/Boost soles even!) is close enough to pass off as retails. Some of the more badass factories can make a batch of 100 brand new replicas for you, just hand in a donor retail pair and they'll get to work.The old dogs in Putian has been around for ages, runs most of the resellers you know and love. They buy reps from the factory direct at ¥140, sell to resellers at ¥160 and have the resellers push ¥180, at these prices the shoes are just not enough to satisfy demand. I've gave it an estimate if the factory got his order to 30 dozen pairs of reps, with each pair a ¥20 profit, we're looking at ¥7,000 a day or ¥20,000 a month in gross profit.
Of course, the Sales and Commerce Assoc. will still take a heavy hand on counterfeit sneakers till today, basically a few sellers every month get caught in the counterfeit business. The offenders walk into the office, sit down, had "the talk" yet again and pay a good ¥30k~¥50k fine and had their licenses taken away, for just awhile. Factories themselves get raided very seldom, maybe a every 6 months only a single factory gets caught per year. Putian has become the leading worldwide repsneaker operation for the entire world, and outputs around 50% the actual worldwide sneaker market, an estimated ¥20bn yearly. The Nikes and Adidases you wear now has an "OEM" for that. You may have bought a brand sneaker [in China], but it may very well be a fake regardless, to be fair the quality itself is indistinguishable anyway.

REPSNEAKER GRADES

1) The Standard Putian's cheapest offering, pretty much trash tier and a certain Taobao sells them the most often :^)
2) The GET Batch A huge improvement from the Standards, and the so-called 1:1 batch from the mouths of others. It's really not, some of the materials itself is not as fine or accurate as the real deal. Tmall often sells these batches, but often get sold as retails.
3) The 1:1 The absolute tip of the high-end replicas. Take it to HuPu.com and only the eagle-eyed few would call you out. Not everyone can get their hands on them, regardless of price. [eg: similar situation to UABat's Union AJ1's]
4) The Retail Nuff said, just retails. (But really, reps cost just 1/5 of the retail price, why bother lol?)
A snapshot of KFC6855's wares

HOW TO TELL FAKES

[The author essentially details how to LC NB998's, so this is best skipped as it adds nothing to the article other than repeating the author's point over and over.]

THE REPSNEAKER FUTURE

If you ever think replica sneakers will only remain within the hypebeast sporty trainer radar, oh you'd be surprised. The replica factories are on full steam, churning out Dr. Martens, UGGS, Tod's and a lot more to come. If you're interested, my WeChat: KFC6855 has them on sale right now, guaranteed to keep ya comfy this winter.

With all that said, I hope you learnt something from this, and now that you know if you really wanted a retail pair to sleep well at night, just don't get 'em in online stores. There's no glitz and glamor selling counterfeit sneakers, it's just business after all.
If you know, you know.

submitted by TeddyTheEspurr to Repsneakers [link] [comments]

What factors predict the success of a Steam game? (An analysis)

What factors predict the success of a Steam game?

I've seen quite a few discussions, comments and questions on /gamedev about what determines a game's success. How much does quality matter? Is establishing market awareness before launch the only thing that matters? Does a demo help or hurt? If your game has a poor launch, how likely is it to recover? Is it possible to roughly predict the sales of a game before launch?
In preparation for my game's launch, I spent a lot of time monitoring upcoming releases trying to find the answer to these questions. I compiled a spreadsheet, noted followers, whether it was Early Access or not, and saw how many reviews it received in the first week, month and quarter.
I'm sharing this data now in the hopes that it helps other developers understand and predict their games' sales.
First some notes on the data:
Game Price Launch Discount Week Guess Week actual 3 Month 3 Month/week Followers Early Access Demo Review Score
Pit of Doom 9.99 0 7 27 43 1.592592593 295 Y N 0.8
Citrouille 9.99 0.2 16 8 12 1.5 226 N N
Corspe Party: Book 14.99 0.1 32 40 79 1.975 1015 N N 0.95
Call of Cthulhu 44.99 0 800 875 1595 1.822857143 26600 N N 0.74
On Space 0.99 0.4 0 0 0 4 N N
Orphan 14.99 0 50 0 8 732 N N
Black Bird 19.99 0 20 13 34 2.615384615 227 N N
Gloom 6.99 0 20 8 17 2.125 159 N N
Gilded Rails 5.99 0.35 2 3 7 2.333333333 11 N Y
The Quiet Man 14.99 0.1 120 207 296 1.429951691 5596 N N 0.31
KartKraft 19.99 0.1 150 90 223 2.477777778 7691 Y N 0.84
The Other Half 7.99 0 2 3 27 9 91 N Y 0.86
Parabolus 14.99 0.15 0 0 0 16 N Y
Yet Another Tower Defense 1.99 0.4 20 22 38 1.727272727 396 N N 0.65
Galaxy Squad 9.99 0.25 8 42 5.25 3741 Y N 0.87
Swords and Soldiers 2 14.99 0.1 65 36 63 1.75 1742 N N 0.84
SpitKiss 2.99 0 3 1 2 2 63 N N
Holy Potatoes 14.99 0 24 11 22 2 617 N N 0.7
Kursk 29.99 0.15 90 62 98 1.580645161 2394 N N 0.57
SimpleRockets 2 14.99 0.15 90 142 272 1.915492958 3441 Y N 0.85
Egress 14.99 0.15 160 44 75 1.704545455 7304 Y N 0.67
Kynseed 9.99 0 600 128 237 1.8515625 12984 Y N 0.86
11-11 Memories 29.99 0 30 10 69 6.9 767 N N 0.96
Rage in Peace 12.99 0.1 15 10 42 4.2 377 N N 0.85
One Hour One Life 19.99 0 12 153 708 4.62745098 573 N N 0.81
Optica 9.99 0 0 2 3 1.5 18 N N
Cybarian 5.99 0.15 8 4 18 4.5 225 N N
Zeon 25 3.99 0.3 3 11 12 1.090909091 82 Y N
Of Gods and Men 7.99 0.4 3 10 18 1.8 111 N Y
Welcome to Princeland 4.99 0.1 1 15 55 3.666666667 30 N N 0.85
Zero Caliber VR 24.99 0.1 100 169 420 2.485207101 5569 Y N 0.73
HellSign 14.99 0 100 131 334 2.549618321 3360 Y N 0.85
Thief Simulator 19.99 0.15 400 622 1867 3.001607717 10670 N N 0.81
Last Stanza 7.99 0.1 8 2 4 2 228 N Y
Evil Bank Manager 11.99 0.1 106 460 4.339622642 8147 Y N 0.78
Oppai Puzzle 0.99 0.3 36 93 2.583333333 54 N N 0.92
Hexen Hegemony 9.99 0.15 3 1 5 5 55 Y N
Blokin 2.99 0 0 0 0 0 10 N N
Light Fairytale Ep 1 9.99 0.1 80 23 54 2.347826087 4694 Y N 0.89
The Last Sphinx 2.99 0.1 0 0 1 0 17 N N
Glassteroids 9.99 0.2 0 0 0 0 5 Y N
Hitman 2 59.99 0 2000 2653 3677 1.385978138 52226 N N 0.88
Golf Peaks 4.99 0.1 1 8 25 3.125 46 N N 1
Sipho 13.99 0 24 5 14 2.8 665 Y N
Distraint 2 8.99 0.1 40 104 321 3.086538462 1799 N N 0.97
Healing Harem 12.99 0.1 24 10 15 1.5 605 N N
Spark Five 2.99 0.3 0 0 0 0 7 N N
Bad Dream: Fever 9.99 0.2 30 78 134 1.717948718 907 N N 0.72
Underworld Ascendant 29.99 0.15 200 216 288 1.333333333 8870 N N 0.34
Reentry 19.99 0.15 8 24 78 3.25 202 Y N 0.95
Zvezda 5.99 0 2 0 0 0 25 Y Y
Space Gladiator 2.99 0 0 1 2 2 5 N N
Bad North 14.99 0.1 500 360 739 2.052777778 15908 N N 0.8
Sanctus Mortem 9.99 0.15 3 3 3 1 84 N Y
The Occluder 1.99 0.2 1 1 1 1 13 N N
Dark Fantasy: Jigsaw 2.99 0.2 1 9 36 4 32 N N 0.91
Farming Simulator 19 34.99 0 1500 3895 5759 1.478562259 37478 N N 0.76
Don't Forget Our Esports Dream 14.99 0.13 3 16 22 1.375 150 N N 1
Space Toads Mayhem 3.99 0.15 1 2 3 1.5 18 N N
Cattle Call 11.99 0.1 10 19 53 2.789473684 250 Y N 0.71
Ralf 9.99 0.2 0 0 2 0 6 N N
Elite Archery 0.99 0.4 0 2 3 1.5 5 Y N
Evidence of Life 4.99 0 0 2 4 2 10 N N
Trinity VR 4.99 0 2 8 15 1.875 61 N N
Quiet as a Stone 9.99 0.1 1 1 4 4 42 N N
Overdungeon 14.99 0 3 86 572 6.651162791 77 Y N 0.91
Protocol 24.99 0.15 60 41 117 2.853658537 1764 N N 0.68
Scraper: First Strike 29.99 0 3 3 15 5 69 N N
Experiment Gone Rogue 16.99 0 1 1 5 5 27 Y N
Emerald Shores 9.99 0.2 0 1 2 2 12 N N
Age of Civilizations II 4.99 0 600 1109 2733 2.464382326 18568 N N 0.82
Dereliction 4.99 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! 18 N N
Poopy Philosophy 0.99 0 0 6 10 1.666666667 6 N N
NOCE 17.99 0.1 1 3 4 1.333333333 35 N N
Qu-tros 2.99 0.4 0 3 7 2.333333333 4 N N
Mosaics Galore. Challenging Journey 4.99 0.2 1 1 8 8 14 N N
Zquirrels Jump 2.99 0.4 0 1 4 4 9 N N
Dark Siders III 59.99 0 2400 1721 2708 1.573503777 85498 N N 0.67
R-Type Dimensions Ex 14.99 0.2 10 48 64 1.333333333 278 N N 0.92
Artifact 19.99 0 7000 9700 16584 1.709690722 140000 N N 0.53
Crimson Keep 14.99 0.15 20 5 6 1.2 367 N N
Rival Megagun 14.99 0 35 26 31 1.192307692 818 N N
Santa's Workshop 1.99 0.1 3 1 1 1 8 N N
Hentai Shadow 1.99 0.3 2 12 6 14 N N
Ricky Runner 12.99 0.3 3 6 13 2.166666667 66 Y N 0.87
Pro Fishing Simulator 39.99 0.15 24 20 19 0.95 609 N N 0.22
Broken Reality 14.99 0.1 60 58 138 2.379310345 1313 N Y 0.98
Rapture Rejects 19.99 0 200 82 151 1.841463415 9250 Y N 0.64
Lost Cave 19.99 0 3 8 11 1.375 43 Y N
Epic Battle Fantasy 5 14.99 0 300 395 896 2.26835443 4236 N N 0.97
Ride 3 49.99 0 75 161 371 2.304347826 1951 N N 0.74
Escape Doodland 9.99 0.2 25 16 19 1.1875 1542 N N
Hillbilly Apocalypse 5.99 0.1 0 1 2 2 8 N N
X4 49.99 0 1500 2638 4303 1.63115997 38152 N N 0.7
Splotches 9.99 0.15 0 2 1 0.5 10 N N
Above the Fold 13.99 0.15 5 2 6 3 65 Y N
The Seven Chambers 12.99 0.3 3 0 0 #DIV/0! 55 N N
Terminal Conflict 29.99 0 5 4 11 2.75 125 Y N
Just Cause 4 59.99 0 2400 2083 3500 1.680268843 50000 N N 0.34
Grapple Force Rena 14.99 0 11 12 29 2.416666667 321 N Y
Beholder 2 14.99 0.1 479 950 1.983298539 16000 N N 0.84
Blueprint Word 1.99 0 12 15 1.25 244 N Y
Aeon of Sands 19.99 0.1 20 12 25 2.083333333 320 N N
Oakwood 4.99 0.1 32 68 2.125 70 N N 0.82
Endhall 4.99 0 4 22 42 1.909090909 79 N N 0.84
Dr. Cares - Family Practice 12.99 0.25 6 3 8 2.666666667 39 N N
Treasure Hunter 16.99 0.15 200 196 252 1.285714286 4835 N N 0.6
Forex Trading 1.99 0.4 7 10 14 1.4 209 N N
Ancient Frontier 14.99 0 24 5 16 3.2 389 N N
Fear the Night 14.99 0.25 25 201 440 2.189054726 835 Y N 0.65
Subterraneus 12.99 0.1 4 0 3 #DIV/0! 82 N N
Starcom: Nexus 14.99 0.15 53 119 2.245283019 1140 Y N 0.93
Subject 264 14.99 0.2 25 2 3 1.5 800 N N
Gris 16.9 0 100 1484 4650 3.133423181 5779 N N 0.96
Exiled to the Void 7.99 0.3 9 4 11 2.75 84 Y N
Column Explanations
For the columns that are not self-explanatory:

Question 1: Does Quality Predict Success?

There was a recent blog post stating that the #1 metric for indie games' success is how good it is.
Quality is obviously a subjective metric. The most obvious objective measure of quality for Steam games is their % Favorable Review score. This is the percentage of reviews by purchasers of the game that gave the game a positive rating. I excluded any game that did not have at least 20 user reviews in the first month, which limited the sample size to 56.
The (Pearson) correlation of a game's review score to its number of reviews three months after its release was -0.2. But 0.2 (plus or minus) isn't a very strong correlation at all. More importantly, Pearson correlation can be swayed if the data contains some big outliers. Looking at the actual games, we can see that the difference is an artifact of an outlier. Literally. Valve's Artifact by far had the most reviews after three months and had one of the lowest review scores (53% at the time). Removing this game from the data changed the correlation to essentially zero.
Spearman's Rho, an alternative correlation model that correlates rank position and minimizes the effect of huge outliers produced a similar result.
Conclusion: If there is correlation between a game's quality (as measured by Steam review score) and first quarter sales (as measured by total review count), it is too subtle to be detected in this data.

Question 2: Do Demos, Early Access or Launch Discounts Affect Success/Failure?

Unfortunately, there were so few games that had demos prior to release (10) that only a very strong correlation would really tell us anything. As it happens, there was no meaningful correlation one way or another.
There were more Early Access titles (28), but again the correlation was too small to be meaningful.
More than half the titles had a launch week discount and there was actually a moderate negative correlation of -0.3 between having a launch discount and first week review count. However it appears that this is primarily the result of the tendency of AAA titles (which sell the most copies) to not do launch discounts. Removing the titles that likely grossed over a $1 million in the first week reduced the correlation to basically zero.
Conclusion: Insufficient data. No clear correlation between demos, Early Access or launch discount and review counts: if they help or hurt the effect is not consistent enough to be seen here.

Question 3: Does pre-launch awareness (i.e., Steam followers) predict success?

You can see the number of "followers" for any game on Steam by searching for its automatically-created Community Group. Prior to launch, this is a good rough indicator of market awareness.
The correlation between group followers shortly before launch and review count at 3 months was 0.89. That's a very strong positive correlation. The rank correlation was also high (0.85) suggesting that this wasn't the result of a few highly anticipated games.
Save for a single outlier (discussed later), the ratio of 3 month review counts to pre-launch followers ranged from 0 (for the handful of games that never received any reviews) to 1.8, with a median value of 0.1. If you have 1000 followers just prior to launch, then at the end of the first quarter you should expect "about" 100 reviews.
One thing I noticed was that there were a few games that had follower counts that seemed too high compared to secondary indicators of market awareness, such as discussion forum threads and Twitter engagement. After some investigation I came to the conclusion that pre-launch key activations are treated as followers by Steam. If a game gave away a lot of Steam keys before launch (say as Kickstarter rewards or part of beta testing) this would cause the game to appear to have more followers than it had gained "organically."
Conclusion: Organic followers prior to launch are a strong predictor of a game's eventual success.

Question 4: What about price?

The correlation between price and review count at 3 month is 0.36, which is moderate correlation. I'm not sure how useful that data point is: it is somewhat obvious that higher budget games have larger marketing budgets.
There is a correlation between price and review score of -0.41. It seems likely that players do factor price into their reviews and a game priced at $60 has a higher bar to clear to earn a thumbs up review than a game priced at $10.

Question 5: Do first week sales predict first quarter results?

The correlation between number of reviews after 1 week and number of reviews after 3 months was 0.99. The Spearman correlation was 0.97. This is the highest correlation I found in the data.
Excluding games that sold very few copies (fewer than 5 reviews after the first week), most games had around twice as many reviews after 3 months as they did after 1 week. This suggests that games sell about as many copies in their first week as they do in the next 12 weeks combined. The vast majority of games had a tail ratio (ratio of reviews at 3 months to 1 week) of between 1.3 to 3.2.
I have seen a number of questions from developers whose game had a poor launch on Steam and wanted to know what they can do to improve sales. While I'm certain post-launch marketing can have an effect on continuing sales, your first week does seem to set hard bounds on your results.
Conclusion: ALL SIGNS POINT TO YES

Question 6: Does Quality Help with a Game's "Tail"?

As discussed in the last question while first week sales are very strongly correlated with first quarter, there's still quite a wide range of ratios. Defining a game's Tail Ratio as the ratio of reviews after 3 months to after 1 week, the lowest value was 0.95 for "Pro Fishing Simulator" which actually managed to lose 1 review. The highest ratio was 6.9, an extreme outlier that I'll talk about later. It is perhaps not a coincidence that the worst tail had a Steam score of 22% and the best tail had a Steam score of 96%.
The overall correlation between the Tail Ratio and Steam score was 0.42.
Conclusion: Even though there is no clear correlation between quality and overall review count/sales, there is a moderate correlation between a game's review score and its tail. This suggests that "good games" do better in the long run than "bad games," but the effect is small compared to the more important factor of pre-launch awareness.

Question 7: Is it possible to predict a game's success before launch without knowing its wishlists?

While I was compiling the data for each game, sometime prior to its scheduled launch date, I would make a prediction of how many reviews I thought it would receive in its first week and add that prediction to the spreadsheet.
The #1 factor I used in making my prediction was group follower count. In some cases I would adjust my prediction if I thought that value was off, using secondary sources such as Steam forum activity and Twitter engagement.
The correlation between my guess and the actual value was 0.96, which is a very strong correlation. As you can see in the data, the predictions are, for the most part, in the right ballpack with a few cases where I was way off.
Based on my experience, multiplying the group follower count by 0.1 will, in most cases, give you a ballpark sense of the first week quarter review count. If a game doesn't have at least one question in the discussion forum for every 100 followers, that may indicate that there are large number of "inorganic" followers and you may need to adjust your estimate.
Conclusion: Yes, with a few exceptions, using follower data and other indicators you can predict first week results approximately. Given the strong correlation between first week and quarter sales, it should also be possible to have a ballpark idea of first quarter results before launch.

Final Question: What about the outliers you mentioned?

There were a few games in the data that stood out significantly in one way or another.
Outlier #1: Overdungeon. This game had 77 group followers shortly before launch, a fairly small number and based solely on that number I would have expected fewer than a dozen reviews in the first week. It ended up with 86. Not only that, it had a strong tail and finished its first quarter with 572 reviews. This was by a wide margin the highest review count to follower ratio in the sample.
Based on the reviews, it appears to basically be Slay the Spire, but huge in Asia. 90% of the reviews seem to be in Japanese or Chinese. If anyone has some insight to this game's unusual apparent success, I'm very curious.
This seems to be the only clear example in the data of a game with minimal following prior to launch going on to having a solid first quarter.
Outlier #2: 11-11 Memories Retold. This game had 767 group followers shortly before launch, ten times as many as Overdungeon. That's still not a large number for even a small indie title. It had a fair amount going for it, though: it was directed by Yoan Fanise, who co-directed the critally acclaimed Valiant Hearts, a game with a similar theme. It was animated by Aardman Studios of "Wallace and Gromit" fame. Its publisher was Bandai Namco Europe, a not inexperienced publisher. The voice acting was by Sebastian Koch and Elijah Wood. It has dozens of good reviews in both gaming and traditional press. It currently has a 95% positive review rating on Steam.
Despite all that, nobody bought it. 24 hours after it came out it had literally zero reviews on Steam. One week after it came out it had just 10. Three months later it had demonstrated the largest tail in the data, but even then it had only climbed to 69 reviews. Now it's at about 100, an incredible tail ratio, but almost certainly a commercial failure.
This is a solid example that good game + good production values does necessarily equal good sales.

Final notes:
The big take-aways from this analysis are:
Thanks for reading!
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The Best Forex Trading Software is Hard to Find - Want to Know Why?

Certain countries that are big producers of commodities will carry a currency that wavers as the cost of the commodity they supply does. The greater the price, the more demand exists for the currency from other countries which causes a boost in the price of the currency. Automated forex trading is changing the lives of thousands of people who have never traded in the forex before. When it comes to trading markets worldwide, there is an open bell that begins all the madness that is a trading market and a closing bell that calls an end to it, at least for that day. However, if you are interested in trading currency then you will not have to deal with openings and closings. The Forex market is a 24-hour a day market and while it may close for transactions over the weekends, given different time zones globally, there is really only a few hours in a week where trading is halted. This is beneficial to a trader who wants to capitalize on some Geopolitical or economic event that can move currency values up or down immediately rather than waiting until the open bell sounds on a particular trading exchange. In order to do this, you have the choice of two options. You can deny yourself sleep and a life away from your computer or you can use a program that will do automated forex trading for you. As you may have gathered, most people chose the latter. Since it is unlikely anyone could spend most of a given week, minus a few short hours, in front of their computers hammering out profitable trades, automated forex trading has been gaining steam for quite some time. The bottom line on these programs is that they will trade for you when you are unable to. This can make you a 24-hour a day trader even in the wee hours of the morning when you are fast asleep, or when you are taking time out of your trading schedule to enjoy a little bit of a social life. If the idea of having a computer program making trades for you seems a bit worrisome you need not to be alarmed. The truth is that these automated forex trading programs can be set up to trade with the same caution and concern that you yourself use to make trades. By setting a maximum on trade sizes and important features like stop-loss gaps to ensure you do not lose too much money should your trade go south on you, an automated forex trading program can make your life as a trader on the currency market a lot easier and a lot more profitable as well.
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Weekly Roundup | Random Chat | Notifications

News roundup for the previous week.
In International news
  1. Chinese in Australia have setup their own safety networks due to lack of police response
  2. China Is Our Last Diplomatic Hope for North Korea
  3. Mass deportation of Chinese from #Fiji in latest offshore crackdown by Beijing: Fijian and Chinese law enforcement agencies arrest 77 in joint operation similar to others carried out in Indonesia and Cambodia
  4. Launch of China- #Malaysia rail link signals stronger ties: China is funding the 620km-long rail link stretching from Tumpat town, near Malaysia's border with Thailand, to Kuantan Port, before cutting through the mountainous central region to Port Klang, Malaysia's busiest port
  5. #Canadians Have Worse Impression Of U.S. Government Than China: Abacus Poll 49% said they had a "very negative" impression of the U.S. 22% for China. Co-author said it was "remarkable" Canadians having more favourable views of China and Russia than of the "passionate defender of individual freedoms"
  6. China hands Trump a win on North Korea crisis
  7. Taiwan calls time on Mongolia and Tibet affairs commission
  8. South Korean's Leader Bluntly Warns U.S. Against Striking North (Apparently not important enough to make it on Google News Headlines)
  9. Fighting for Chinatown
  10. China won’t allow regime change in N. Korea – fmr US diplomat
  11. Ukraine seeks greater presence in China's agro products market
  12. China tells ‘imperfect’ US to mind its own business over religious freedom criticism
  13. Asian Americans Are Targeted For Hate Crimes More Than We Think
  14. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (#SCO) completed a joint anti-terrorist drill in Russia's Yaroslavl region located northeast of Moscow, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said
  15. Man Gets Sentenced To Life For Killing USC Student From China
  16. Beijing signs deals with Nepal
  17. Chinese universities rise in world university academic rankings
  18. China's New Base in Djibouti to Aid Economic Expansion in #Africa. Currently, China mainly imports minerals and oil from Africa, but its long-term plan is to build factories on the continent and move some of its manufacturing there to take advantage of the cheaper labor and geographic position
  19. Hard-pedaling Soft Power, China Helps Launch $13B Belt and Road Rail Project in #Malaysia: "The ECRL is indeed yet another 'game changer' and a 'mindset changer' for Malaysia as it will significantly cut travel time to and from the east coast of the peninsula," Malaysian Prime Minister said
  20. 'Economic war with China is everything' Steve Bannon got removed (lol)
  21. Chinese Yang Jiayu wins women's 20km race walk at London World Championships
  22. Asian woman says she quit Google due to racial discrimination
  23. Chinese-Americans concerned about new Texas immigration law
  24. Chinese and #African media houses vow to deepen cooperation in information sharing, best practice and training to improve the dissemination of information
  25. #Pakistan, China sign documents to enhance cooperation in the fields of education and infrastructure development
  26. Former Shanghai teacher now a tribal chief in Nigeria
  27. ‘Duterte wants joint exploration with China’ Foreign Affairs Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano said
In Domestic news
  1. Two arrested in 22-year murder case, one suspect award-winning writer, member of Chinese Writers Association [Chinese]
  2. HK Democracy activist Howard Lam, (aka Staples-Tortured Chub), arrested for misleading police over kidnap claim
  3. Sinopec goes big on geothermal
  4. China Launches ‘Special Crackdown’ on Pyramid Schemes
  5. Police may look into mental health of Hong Kong democracy activist Howard Lam after kidnap claim suspecting mental issues and the stapling was an act of self-harm
  6. 1,290 meters! The main construction of the world's longest 3-tower cable-stayed railway bridge has completed in China
  7. Hong Kong activist Joshua Wong jailed over Occupy protests
  8. China is investigating its major social media sites, including Baidu, WeChat and Weibo, for potentially breaching cybersecurity laws
  9. China’s Major Social Platforms to Cooperate With Authorities in #Cybersecurity: Tieba communication platform, the WeChat messenger and Weibo made separate statements earlier in the day declaring their readiness to actively cooperate with the CAC
  10. China Launches World's Largest Floating #Solar Power Plant: over 160,000 solar panels spreading over 86 hectares of water surface, can provide energy for some 15,000 houses annually
In SciTech news
  1. #Nanochemistry meets macrostructures: Chinese scientists report the synthesis of a macroscopic aerogel from carbonitride nanomaterials which is an excellent catalyst for the water-splitting reaction under visible-light irradiation
  2. Light, strong alloy may alter design of aircraft: The nano ceramic aluminum alloy was developed at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. The new material has already been used in the Tiangong-1 and Tiangong-2 space labs, quantum satellites and meteorological satellites
  3. Converting greenhouse gas to value-added syngas takes a big step forward
  4. China to build first #Mars simulation base: Situated at the Qaidam basin in western Qinghai, Haixi was chosen for its Mars-like landform, landscape and climate
  5. Seeking Greater Global Power, China Looks to Robots and Microchips
  6. Earliest-Known Winged #Mammal Relatives Discovered In China: When you think about the Jurassic Period, you probably think of massive dinosaurs. But now scientists say there were also gliders, akin to today's flying squirrels . Maiopatagium furculiferum and Vilevolodon diplomylos
  7. Chinese satellite sends 'hack-proof' message: The #Micius satellite beamed messages to two mountain-top receiving stations 645 km (400 miles) and 1,200 km away. Complicated optics on the Chinese satellite protect messages with entangled photons
  8. New Privacy Mode Added to DJI Drones, US Army Released Memo to Grant Exception to DJI Ban Pending this New Privacy Mode
  9. Scientists have cloned genetically modified piglets that may prove a safe source of organs for transplants into humans. The piglets, born in a lab in Yunnan, do not carry the active infectious viral gene which has impeded the process of pig-to-human transplantation for more than a decade
  10. China to establish intercontinental ‘hack-proof’ #quantum links with Australia, Europe: Further experiments this year will evolve ground stations in Germany and Italy, Pan added, bringing the project closer to the planned Asian-European secure communication network
  11. Woman Becomes First Person to Be Cryopreserved in China
  12. Novel Thruster Design Could Enable Deeper Travel Into Space
  13. China launches brain-imaging factory
  14. Chinese scientists reveal how itch turns into scratch. In a study published in the U.S. journal Science, researchers reported the discovery of a central neural circuit that moves itch signal from the spinal cord to a part of the brainstem called the parabrachial nucleus (PBN).
  15. China pips US to start world’s first meltdown-proof nuclear reactor
  16. China has unveiled the world's first 'unhackable computer network'
  17. 1,069 dancing robots break Guinness World Record in China (VIDEO)
  18. Despite strains, China and the US are top partners in science
  19. Woman saved by pioneering 3D printed spine in China: had to have six consecutive cervical vertebrae replaced because they had been affected by the rare cancer
  20. Chinese Internet majors compete to dominate #ASEAN tech ecosystem: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com – collectively termed BATJ – are leading a wave of investment into Southeast Asia’s venture ecosystem and technology sector
  21. Who Are China's Biggest Fabless Chipmakers?
In Economic news
  1. Spotlight: Bashing China cannot solve U.S. economic problems, experts say
  2. China July FX reserves unexpectedly hit 9-month high on boost from weak dollar: China's forex reserves, the world's largest, rose $24 billion in July to $3.081 trillion
  3. China's Economic Outlook in Six Charts
  4. Fiat Chrysler could be bought by a Chinese automaker If a deal comes to fruition, it would be a big boon for Chinese car companies looking to improve
  5. Industrial “edge cities” have helped China grow
  6. Deng Xiaoping - the world's greatest economist
  7. US formally launches probe of China trade ties
  8. China emerging as Germany's main economic rival
  9. New investment rules to curb China's foreign acquisition binge
  10. How China’s can-do generation will power economic growth
  11. Young Taiwanese choose China jobs over politics
In Military news
  1. What is China’s PLA doing in #Laos? Beijing's 'Train of Peace' mission to provide medical care to Lao armed forces was nominally a goodwill mission but underscored the country's strategic importance to China's plans for Southeast Asia
  2. Russia, China challenging US military dominance: Mattis
  3. China's making major progress with its aircraft carrier tech (Type 002 to have flat top with catapult, Type 003 to be nuclear powered supercarriers)
  4. Think Tank Says Beijing Continuing #SouthChinaSea Construction. Photos of Tree Island demonstrate sizeable expansion of the island’s above-water mass between August 5, 2015, and August 5, 2017. The size of the island increased by roughly 24 acres between during the time period, AMTI said
  5. #Taiwan says Chinese aircraft fly around island in weekend of drills
  6. #Space Standoff: Uncertainty in Militarized Space. If Russian policy towards the American space program is described as unfriendly, then U.S. policy towards China can be described as nothing short of hostile
  7. Construction of China's 2nd #AircraftCarrier for PLAN Progressing Faster than Expected: propulsion system tests are currently underway. The first and third boilers are already on, and the steam turbines will soon follow. Dockside testing could start within the next month
  8. China has announced plans to bolster its maritime #nuclear capabilities with the creation of a major new joint venture project, could provide the catalyst for the development of floating reactors. The new company will also seek to promote the development of nuclear-powered vessels
  9. The #Pentagon’s top general Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he discussed with his Chinese counterparts ways to coordinate with China’s military to avoid dangerous miscalculations should war break out with North Korea
Other Notables
  1. Adopted to the US, an American teen’s journey in search of her roots
  2. The busiest employee in a warehouse? Meet China-made warehouse robot!
  3. New research blamed increased competition with China for soaring death rates among white, middle aged Americans (lol)?
  4. On the other side of the table: Nepalese commenters on youtube - to Nepal, India is the big bully, loves China, calls for China's protection
  5. Why Nirvana in Fire is the Best Cdrama
  6. July 2017 Study Refutes Earlier Theories of "Increased US White Male Despair / Deaths Due to Loss of Jobs to China" ("Opioids and obesity, not 'despair deaths,' raising mortality rates for white Americans)
  7. China starts work on world's second-largest hydropower station
  8. Vincent Chin was a Chinese American Man beaten to death in 1982 with a baseball bat by two laid off auto-workers who blamed him for losing their jobs because Japanese cars started becoming popular. The men received initial sentences of 3 years probation and no jail time.
  9. Chinese Guy & American Girlfriend React to Racist Fox News Chinatown Segment
  10. Preserving Nanjing's architectural treasures
  11. The King's Woman 秦时丽人明月心 Airs this week
  12. Hollywood chases after Wu Jing as Wolf Warriors 2, a film with $30M budget crosses $700M mark and still rising.
  13. #Taichi is big in China and its influence is spreading globally: China's mega-rich and powerful believe the merits of the gentle exercise boosts not only personal well-being but company profits and transforms corporate cultures
  14. Why My School Teaches Students to Survive on Next to Nothing
  15. Eddie Huang Serves A White Supremacist & Trump Supporter The Facts While They Eat Chinese Food
  16. #Banda Islands: How Chinese traders – and war over an aphrodisiac – led to a multicultural Indonesia. The world’s major powers considered the Banda Islands the key spoil of a spice war hundreds of years ago and it is this bloody past that made the country what it is today
  17. How the ‘Safest Place on Earth’ Can Be More Welcoming to Others
  18. Modern Chinese Architecture: Landscape Design of Suzhou Vanke Great Lake Park
  19. No.66 Lanman Hutong Renovation
  20. RAW: China holds massive day-night live-fire artillery drill
  21. When Hong Kong workmen dug up 2,000-year-old tomb and were all set to demolish it until public’s enthusiasm saved the day
  22. Long awaited Tribes & Empires: Storm of Prophecy confirmed to air on September 25, 2017.
  23. Heads up, our brothers in arms RT channel has amazing series of documentaries on Chinese culture and the new silk road, very beautifully shot.
  24. Any recent documentaries about modern china history that aren't from the western perspective with English subs or audio?
  25. Forgotten ally? China's unsung role in World War II
  26. 81-Year-Old Chinese Husband Serenades Wife In a Coma For Their 54th Anniversary
  27. How Chop Suey Saved San Francisco's Chinatown [Chinese Food: An All-American Cuisine, Pt. 1]
  28. The Untold Story Of America's Southern Chinese [Chinese Food: An All-American Cuisine, Pt. 2]
  29. 5000 thousands years of beauty.
  30. #WolfWarrior2 Crosses $600M In China; No. 6 All-Time Gross In A Single Market
  31. Throwback to when movies used to start with this...
  32. Alright, I know some of us support Trump, but this better not be you (3rd generation Chinese American Neo-Nazi supporter)
  33. Why the Western definition of human rights is an absurd fraud
  34. #WWE Network to Launch in China: Vince McMahon's pro wrestling organization signed a deal with PPTV to offer a subscription video-on-demand service including all live pay-per-view events
  35. Documentary explores the history of astronomy in China
  36. 'Economic war with China is everything': Trump’s chief strategist in candid interview
  37. The Chinese massacre of 1871 in Los Angeles, California. An estimated 17 to 20 Chinese immigrants were tortured and then hanged by the mob, making the event the largest mass lynching in American history.
  38. Chinese Social Political Stability Rests in "Dual Faceted Identity System" (A Model Societal System Analysis based on Recent Rise of White Nationalism in US)
  39. Lu Xiaojun (77) - 170kg/175kg/177kg Snatch Slow Motion
  40. The Surprisingly Important Role China Played in WWI
  41. Chinese Farmer Builds Epic Multi-Story Platform For 'Pig Diving'
  42. Ai Weiwei takes a small break from mocking Chinese government to criticise western society - "Human Flow" documentary film about refugees
  43. Review: Capitalism With Chinese Characteristics
  44. Hollywood hero with Chinese characteristics
  45. BBC calls what Chinese are doing 'exploitation' while the exact same thing done in the west is ignored.
  46. Ancient poetry content in Chinese text books to sharply increase
  47. The Love Affair of Mussolini’s Daughter Edda & Zhang Xueliang, Heroic China Warlord
  48. 57-year-old man grabs gold medals in body building competition
  49. Cambridge University Press pulls articles in China at Beijing’s request
  50. China's Wolf Warriors 2 joins top 100 grossing films worldwide: non-Hollywood film to break into the top 100 all-time grossing movies worldwide. Knocked 1994's "Forrest Gump" from the No 100 spot
  51. 《追捕》 Manhunt (directed by John Woo) International Trailer
  52. Why Nirvana in Fire is the Best Chinese Drama - Part 2/2
  53. Trying to learn more about traditional chinese culture, what can you guys tell me about the color Qing?
  54. Robot introduced to hospital to autofill prescriptions in E. China
  55. Something worth a grin
  56. Story of China’s ancient military might found carved in cliff
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